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CANELO, LARA: Long, tense fight looks likely. / Photo: SUMIO YAMADA
Alvarez -150; Lara +130
Over 9.5 -195; under 9.5 +155

Saturday’s big PPV fight between Saul “Canelo” Alvarez and Erislandy Lara should tell us a lot about Canelo. The ginger-haired Mexican superstar was disappointing against Floyd Mayweather Jr. but came back to beat up Alfredo Angulo. If Canelo is destined for greatness he should be able to win this 12-round junior middleweight match at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
 
Canelo opened as just a -140 favourite but money has been coming in on him and his current price is around -200. I agree with the Canelo money. While this fight is intriguing and evenly matched, I’m going with Canelo.

COTTO, MARTINEZ: fascinating fight. Photo: CHRIS FARINA, Top Rank
Martinez -185; Cotto +155
Over 10.5 -160; under 10.5 +140

Having won titles at light-welter, welter and light-middleweight, Miguel Cotto attempts to become the first Puerto Rican four-weight world champion when he moves up to the middleweight division to challenge Sergio Martinez for the WBC title at Madison Square Garden on Saturday.
 
Martinez is bigger, but Cotto has some things in his favour, not least that New York City’s huge Puerto Rican population means that he effectively has hometown advantage.
 

FROCH, GROVES: No love lost between British rivals.
Froch -125; Groves +100
Over 11.5 -+120; under 11.5 -140

There are times when a fight ends in such an unsatisfactory fashion that a rematch gets made by public demand. This is the situation with the return fight between Carl Froch and George Groves, which takes place at Wembley Stadium on Saturday, with Sky Sports televising on PPV in the U.K. while HBO will be showing the fight for viewers in the U.S.
 
Froch, who will be defending his WBA “super world” and IBF 168lbs titles, felt he had proved superiority with last November’s ninth-round win — but few agreed.

MAYWEATHER; MAIDANA: Another masterclass looks likely. / Photo: TOM CASINO for Showtime
Mayweather -1250; Maidana +500
Over 10.5 -200; under 10.5 +160

When there is an upset in boxing there are usually clues — even if well-hidden ones — as to what might happen. A betting favourite might be looking past his opponent, or he might be under-prepared, or over-confident, or struggling to make weight, or perhaps beset by distractions outside the ring. He may be showing signs of slippage. Unfortunately for underdog Marcos Maidana, none of the above applies to Floyd Mayweather, who defends his WBC welterweight title, undefeated record and superstar status against the Argentinean slugger at the MGM Grand tonight; Maidana will be risking his WBA “super world” title and seeking to pull off a life-changing victory.
 
Try as we might, we cannot find any hint as to how Maidana can pull off a monumental surprise.

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CANELO forced Lara to be defensive. / Photo: SUMIO YAMADA

While this was always likely to be a fight where scoring was open to debate, to me there was no doubt that Canelo Alvarez deserved the decision over Erislandy Lara in Saturday’s junior middleweight fight in Las Vegas.
 
I had Canelo up by 116-112 after 12 interesting rather than exciting rounds. I could see 115-113; judge Levi Martinez’s 117-111 was clearly a bit too wide.