Picks of the Week - Free Sample

The ratings system: How it works

Five stars: Pick of the week.
 Four stars: Looks like a winner.
Three stars: Solid selection.
Two stars: Cautiously optimistic
One star: Speculative play

CHARLIE OTA vs TADASHI YUBA

Tadashi Yuba brings experience, Charlie Ota is younger and stronger, and both men can punch, which adds up to a competitive and exciting fight for the Japanese and OPBF 154-pound titles in Tokyo on Saturday.
 
Yuba, the challenger, turned professional as a junior welterweight and is a former Japanese lightweight champion. He is a colourful southpaw with something of a hit-or-be-hit style — three of his five losses came by KO and he has been the full distance only once in the past 10 years.
 
Ota, real name Charles Bellamy, is a former American serviceman who turned professional in Japan after dabbling in amateur boxing. He is a muscled 5ft 6ins who has been learning on the job. In his last fight, Ota had to get off the floor to win a split decision over King Davidson, a tall Australian-based Nigerian southpaw who won a Commonwealth Games bronze medal in the amateurs and was unbeaten in 12 bouts. Ota showed grit to come back from a heavy knockdown in the opening round and I gather that his pressure and heavy hitting had Davidson boxing defensively and clutching often.
 
I was able to see Ota’s win over Akio Shibata last March. Ota dropped Shibata in the eighth round and overpowered him with a follow-up barrage, but it was a difficult fight for him. The much-taller Shibata used a hit and move style with some success, even buckling Ota’s legs briefly with a left hook in the seventh round.
 
Yuba, tall and rangy, has stopped his last five opponents but he was rocked several times in his fight with fellow-southpaw Akinori Watanabe before catching his man with a big left uppercut in the fifth and then hammering him on the ropes to bring the referee’s intervention.
 
The 33-year-old Yuba has the superior boxing skills and at 6ft he has height and reach advantages, but Ota, 29, was able to land his punches against a tall southpaw in the win over King Davidson.
 
It seemed to me that Ota was a bit too sparing with his punches in the win over Akio Shibata — he tended to move in patiently and wait for the perfect opening. Once he caught Shibata, though, he didn’t allow him to recover.
 
I think that Saturday’s fight could come down to which man can take a punch better, and that, I believe, is Ota. Each man is likely to get hit, but Ota has much the fresher look and I am expecting him to prevail after an exciting, give-and-take contest. I feel that Ota can come back from Yuba’s punches but I don’t think the reverse applies.
 
BETTING TIP: The under 7.5 looks tempting at around -130 while Ota was priced attractively at an opening line of -115 at the sportsbook group. Money has since shown for Ota, who was as high as -200 as of early Friday morning (Bet365) although he was still sitting at a reasonable -130 at the sportsbook group while 5 Dimes had him at -160. I think Ota is worth a play at anything up to -160. The “under” has value because each man can hurt the other. Ota was dropped in his last fight and wobbled in the fight before that, but Yuba has a “could go” look about him. I’m endorsing Ota as a two-star play and the under 7.5 as a one-star selection, although , a note of caution, "unders" have not been going well for us lately.
  

JOHN SIMPSON vs STEPHEN SMITH

It’s another of those youth versus experience fights on Sept. 4 when John Simpson defends his Commonwealth featherweight title against unbeaten Stephen Smith in Glasgow.
 
This is an extremely ambitious fight for the 25-year-old Smith, from Liverpool, who has had only 10 fights and has never been past eight rounds.
 
Simpson, 27, has lost only once in the past three years and he is a veteran of 10 title bouts (British, Commonwealth, World Boxing Union). He has home-ground advantage and he is punching harder than at any time in his career.
 
Smith is one of a family of four boxing brothers from Liverpool — his older brother, Paul, is the British super middleweight champion. He had an excellent amateur career, winning the Commonwealth Games gold medal, a European championships bronze medal and two English national (ABA) titles as well as boxing in international events such as the world junior championships in South Korea. Smith is fast and classy, capable of throwing barrages of punches in rapid-fire manner.
 
Simpson is a solid, durable professional who has mastered the basics. He punches accurately and with good form, putting pressure on his opponents and wearing them down. He twice proved too strong for the stylish Paul Truscott, from Middlesbrough in England, a boxer with similarities to Smith. Truscott piled up points early but couldn’t hurt Simpson, and cuts played a part in his two defeats against the Scottish boxer. Smith, unlike Truscott, might have the firing power to make an impact on Simpson. If Smith can hurt the more experienced man it can give him the chance to get into control of certain rounds. If he can win enough rounds he can win the fight — I would be astonished if Smith could stop Simpson, but a win on points looks feasible.
 
Smith has been seeking a step up in class almost from the time he turned professional. He believes in himself, and at 25 and with his amateur international amateur experience he has more maturity than most boxers with just 10 fights on their record.
 
Simpson’s last defeat was on a unanimous but very close decision to Paul Appleby, a fellow-Scot with a busy punching style. Appleby got the win by, basically, outhustling Simpson. I think that Smith, who has a high-energy style, can do the same.
 
BETTING TIP: Simpson was, correctly, made the betting favourite when lines were released. With his experience and home-ground advantage you would expect him to win. There has been minor fluctuation but the odds are essentially unchanged. Smith is available at around +130 at most sportsbooks. I make Smith good value as an underdog. He will have to rise to the occasion and fight he best fight of his life, but I think he can do it. I’m going with Smith’s energy and speed to see him through to a close, hard-earned win by decision.

PARLAY: Seda, Sturm, Zaveck

Three favourites can, I believe, be teamed in a parlay over the next two weekends with a better than decent chance of success.
 
Money has been pouring in on Cesar Seda, the unbeaten southpaw junior bantam, who meets veteran Jose Lopez in an all-Puerto Rican bout tonight (Friday). It is easy to see why players like Seda in this fight. He has stopped 14 opponents in his 18 consecutive wins and he is boxing in his hometown. Lopez is 38 and lost to Marvin Sonsona in his last fight, when he struggled with the Filipino boxer’s speed, power and southpaw style. Seda seems to be a similar type of fighter to Sonsona — a fast, sharp southpaw — and he is the younger man by 14 years. He looks like a fighter going places and I think he should beat Lopez, although I feel the odds are now inflated: Lopez is tough, gritty and very experienced and he is no pushover. Still, playing Seda seems to make sense in a parlay (accumulator) wager.
 
I would include Jan Zaveck as the second fighter in the suggested parlay. Zaveck defends his IBF welter title on home ground in Slovenia on Saturday week (Sept. 4) when he meets old rival Rafal Jackiewicz, of Poland, in a rematch. Jackiewicz won the first fight on a split decision in Poland. That was a very close contest (one point on one card from being a draw). The bout was almost two years ago and I believe Zaveck has improved. He demolished Isaac Hlatshwayo in a very impressive upset win in South Africa. Jackiewicz, meanwhile, had a desperate struggle with Delvin Rodriguez last November, when he was dropped and almost stopped although he rallied gamely and bustled his way to the unanimous decision. Jackiewicz is a busy-punching type but something of an overachiever. Zaveck, although he lost the last fight, seems the more talented — and this time he is on home ground, which could be the difference. I’m expecting a hard-fought win on points for Zaveck.
 
To complete the parlay, I’m taking Felix Sturm to beat Giovanni Lorenzo in their middleweight title bout in Cologne, Germany on Sept. 4. Lorenzo, from the Dominican Republic but New York-based, is a big, strong fighter and he is heavy handed, but Sturm simply looks a better class of boxer. Sturm is boxing for the first time since splitting from the once-powerful Universum outfit. He is promoting this show in conjunction with his new ally Ahmet Öner of Arena Box-Promotion, and the fight is being held close to Sturm’s home city of Leverkusen. While form isn’t always a reliable guide, Lorenzo lost to Sebastian Sylvester while Sturm comfortably outpointed his German rival, and these results indicate a clear difference in talent between Sturm and Lorenzo. I don’t make this an easy fight for Sturm, but I will be surprised if he loses.
 
BETTING TIP: If Seda, Zaveck and Sturm are played in a parlay it works out at around -120 at current odds. I like the parlay at this price. As ever, if one man loses, there goes the parlay, but the favourites all have the look of winners. Strangely enough, the one I am the most uneasy about is the biggest favourite of the three — which is the Puerto Rican Seda.